The hottest PVC futures market is close to commodi

2022-08-19
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The listing of PVC futures is approaching, adding new strength to commodity investment

as the listing date of PVC futures is approaching, spot enterprises, futures companies and individual investors are "gearing up". At present, investors focus on the laws, characteristics and investment value of PVC price fluctuations. According to the interview, the evaluation of relevant experts and market participants is that PVC is closely connected with the overall domestic economic development situation and is the "thermometer" of coal and crude oil. The long-term trend is cyclical and the short-term price fluctuates frequently. PVC futures will be very active after they are listed in the future

share the achievements of economic development

"there is an obvious positive correlation between the demand for PVC and China's GDP growth rate. For each percentage point increase in GDP, m) sampling rate: ≥ 50 times/s; to drive the demand for PVC to increase by more than 500000 tons." Dr. wangshumei from the variety research department of the Institute of Commerce said that in recent years, with the acceleration of China's urbanization process, the successive introduction of a series of preferential agricultural policies and the promotion of the new medical reform process, it is bound to drive a new round of rapid development of PVC pipes with a diameter of 1.5m in the fields of construction, agricultural facilities, infrastructure and public facilities construction and medical treatment. "As an important basic raw material for the development of industry and national economy, the market demand for PVC will continue to maintain a strong momentum."

she said, "as an important industrial raw material, the domestic market demand for PVC will be further stimulated. The introduction of PVC futures at this time undoubtedly provides investors with a good investment opportunity, so that investors can share the fruits of China's economic growth by participating in this variety."

the "thermometer" of coal and crude oil

pvc has the concept of coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry. Wangshumei said that there are two main preparation processes for PVC production: one is calcium carbide method, which mainly produces calcium carbide, coal and raw salt; The second is ethylene process, the main raw material is ethylene petroleum. PVC production in the international market is mainly based on ethylene method, while calcium carbide method is mainly used in China. From the perspective of production cost, the cost of the two processes varies greatly in different economic development cycles. "Usually, in the high-speed development stage of international macro-economy, due to the high oil price, the production cost of ethylene method is high, and the cost advantage of calcium carbide method is obvious; once the international economy enters recession, the oil price will run at a low level, while the cost advantage of calcium carbide method will disappear because of the high energy consumption, the price of downstream raw materials such as coal, electricity and oil transportation is supported."

she said that in the long run, with the deepening of China's economic openness, China should at least meet the requirement that there will be no pulverization in 400 hours at 150 ℃, and the changes in the international PVC price will also transmit and drive the corresponding changes in the domestic price, which indirectly links the changes in the international oil price with the domestic PVC market price. It is estimated that the correlation coefficient between PVC price and oil price and coal price has exceeded 0.6, indicating that there is a high correlation between PVC price and energy prices such as coal and oil, making PVC varieties more attractive for investment today when there is no energy futures in China

the short-term price of PVC fluctuates frequently

the price fluctuation of varieties in the futures market is one of the important prerequisites for investors to participate. The relevant person in charge of Dashang said, "the frequent fluctuation of PVC short-term prices will certainly increase the hedging demand of enterprises and create more profit opportunities for investors." The production of PVC in China presents the Chinese characteristics of the coexistence of calcium carbide process and ethylene process. Coupled with the frequent fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as international coal, crude oil and calcium carbide, the price of PVC is not only highly cyclical, but also very frequent and violent short-term price fluctuations. In July 2008, the market price of PVC was 8900 yuan/ton, which fell to 5200 yuan in November. At the same time, the rapid development of new energy vehicles has opened a broad market for plastics, Prices fell 42% in less than four months

market participants have said that futures provide a convenient way for enterprises to avoid and transfer price risks

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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