The hottest PVC futures may maintain a range volat

2022-08-22
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PVC futures may maintain a range of volatile prices

first, Market Review

PVC futures rebounded strongly after a sharp decline at the beginning of the week. The main contract v1105 opened at 8415, with an intraday maximum of 8900 and a minimum of 8300. It closed at 8660 at the end of the day, down 165 points, or 1.87%. The trading volume increased by 308000 hands to 922000 hands, and the position decreased by 23000 hands to 31330 hands

II. Market analysis

1. Macro economy

at the beginning of the week, Ireland's sovereign debt crisis showed a worsening trend, but Ireland's minister of European Affairs said that there was no reason to start the rescue mechanism of the European Union or IMF, market risk aversion was significantly enhanced, and the US dollar rebounded sharply, leading to a sharp decline in non US dollar currencies, commodities and global stock markets. On Thursday, Ireland said for the first time that it needed international assistance to save its banking system, which was severely weakened by non-performing loans. The European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund sent a joint expert team to Dublin, the capital of Ireland, to investigate the real situation and negotiate a possible rescue plan. Concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone eased, and the dollar exchange rate fell. However, this move further raised questions about whether other European economies need to use "pieces" and "approval" to express assistance at this time, and the United Bank of Ireland warned that its dependence on the emergency fund of the European Central Bank is deepening, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up development of Ireland's sovereign debt crisis

the people's Bank of China announced on the evening of the 19th that it would raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from November 29, 2010. The central bank pointed out that the increase in the reserve ratio was intended to strengthen liquidity management and appropriately regulate money and credit supply. This is the second time this month to raise the deposit reserve ratio. After an increase of 0.5 percentage points, the central bank can freeze the liquidity of the banking system by more than 350 billion yuan at one time. The increase of the deposit reserve ratio has restrained liquidity again, and the tightening of monetary policy is becoming more and more obvious. The possibility of raising interest rates in the previous year still exists. Before the boots of raising interest rates are landing, the financial market may continue to oscillate

2. International crude oil

wti crude oil and dollar index trend chart

the chart shows the trend chart of WTI crude oil and dollar index. (image source: Boyi master, CSC futures)

despite the unexpected decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the previously released data showed that the U.S. economic recovery was sluggish, and the market was worried about the euro zone rescue action and China's tightening monetary policy. Crude oil fell sharply in a row, seeking support at $80. On Thursday, Ireland said for the first time that it needed international assistance, and its concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone eased. After four consecutive days of decline, oil prices rebounded strongly led by global stock markets and commodities. On Friday, the people's Bank of China announced to raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions. International crude oil fell again after rising on Friday, suffering the largest weekly decline in three months. The U.S. Department of energy and information technology (EI Ministry of industry and information technology organized a survey on the basic situation of China's lithium battery industry a) announced that as of the week of November 12, U.S. crude oil inventories had decreased by 7.29 million barrels to 357.6 million barrels, with an estimated increase of 100000 barrels. Gasoline inventories in the United States decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 207.68 million barrels, with an estimated reduction of 800000 barrels. U.S. distillate inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 158.79 million barrels, with an estimated decrease of 2.2 million barrels. Us refinery capacity utilization increased by 1.6% to 84%, with an estimated increase of 0.3%. Cushing's crude oil inventory increased by 1.27 million barrels to 33.07 million barrels. Recently, the inventory of crude oil and refined oil has been declining continuously, while the peak demand in winter is approaching, and the market liquidity is still abundant. The oil price is still supported to a certain extent, but China's monetary policy is tightening. Before the Central Bank of China raises interest rates, international crude oil may maintain a regional volatile market within the US dollar range

U.S. crude oil inventory (unit: 10000 barrels)

the figure shows the trend of U.S. crude oil inventory. At least 2.1 million tons of ultra-fine powder mineral filler are used in various plastic products every year. (image source: wind information, CSC futures)

3, metallographic analysis method Note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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